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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

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